World Futures




*(Re)Imagining Humane Global Governance. Richard Falk (Prof Emeritus of International Law, Princeton U; Center for Global and International Studies, U of California, Santa Barbara). Global Horizons Series. NY: Routledge, Jan 2014, 208p, $39.95pb ( ). "Understanding the evolving nature of global governance seems ever more critical to the overall management of planetary life. In some respects, the realities of multiple forms of interrelatedness make this undertaking more complex and fragile than it has ever been." Several techtonic shifts are underway: territorial sovereignty is more permeable, "territorialization" of the global commons (e.g. expanded offshore claims), and a shift in emphasis from boundaries to limits. Chapters discuss nonviolent geopolitics, humane global governance vs. world government, the future of international law, climate change and nuclear weapons, the promise and perils of global democracy, illusions of UN reform, whether it is possible to live together well on Planet Earth, whether we should revive the World Order Models Project (headed by Falk in the 1970s), and exploring horizons of desire in the early 21st century. Examines the urgent challenges that we must face to counter imperialism, injustice, global poverty, militarism, and environmental disaster. Outlines the radical reforms that are needed on an institutional level and within global civil society if we are to realize the dream of a world that is more just, equitable and peaceful. (WORLD FUTURES * HUMANE GLOBAL GOVERNANCE * UN REFORM)


**Development Co-operation Report 2013: Ending Poverty. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris: OECD, Nov 2013, 300p, $93 (download free at The world is probably on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goal target of halving the proportion of people whose income is less than $1.25 a day by 2015. Nonetheless, we are far from achieving the overarching MDG of eradicating extreme poverty. This report focuses on the very poor and describes the nature and dimensions of poverty today and what development co-operation – and the global partnerships it supports – can do in the fight against poverty. Chapters discuss defining and measuring extreme poverty, policies that tackle poverty (economic growth is not sufficient to eradicate all dimensions of poverty), and the new post-2015 framework for ending poverty (UN's vision, global public goods, “smart” development co-operation, momentum to end poverty). “To recapture the Millennium Declaration’s vision, the new international development agenda must embody principles of solidarity, equality, dignity, and respect for nature. It will need goals that can effectively guide core aspirations, targets that are easy to monitor, and strategies for economic and social transformation.” The new agenda should be applicable to all counties, but with responsibilities that vary according to a country’s starting point and resources. Targets should be set nationally, but with global minimum standards and sustained support for fragile states. New directions for ending poverty: 1) see development as a shift from poverty to power by empowering people--especially women and the chronically poor; 2) build inclusive and sustainable economies that enable the poorest to participate in and benefit from growth; “this will require a root-and-branch re-orientation and reprioritization of policies and programs—especially in agriculture, education, energy, and employment”; 3) provide systems of social protection—employment guarantees, cash transfers, pensions, child and disability allowances—to create a virtuous circle; 4) make environmental sustainability and natural resources a core priority, linked to poverty reduction and well-being; 5) invest in smallholder agriculture to tackle poverty and promote broad-based economic growth in poor and largely rural countries; 6) support the exchange of knowledge and experience on poverty reduction; 7) a new Global partnership for Effective Development Co-operation is needed to catalyze and coordinate global efforts and resources; 8) recognize that peace and the reduction of violence are the foundations of poverty eradication. (WORLD FUTURES * DEVELOPMENT * POVERTY: NEW WAYS TO END * POST-2015 ANTI-POVERTY AGENDA)


* 22 Ideas to Fix the World: Conversations with the World's Foremost Thinkers. Edited by Piotr Dutkiewicz (Prof of PolSci and Director, Center for Governance and Public Policy, Carleton U, Ottawa) and Richard Sakwa (Prof of Russian and European Politics, U of Kent; Assoc Fellow, Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House).  NY: New York U Press and the Social Science Research Council, Oct 2013, 492p, $27.95.  This volume from the World Public Forum Dialogue of Civilizations and the Social Science Research Council explores what the prolonged instability of the so-called Great Recession means for our traditional understanding of how governments can and should function; the interviews feature both analysis of past geopolitical events and possible solutions and predictions for the future. Covered topics include the Arab Spring, the influence of international financial organizations, the possibilities for the growth of democracy, the acceleration of global warming, and how to develop enforceable standards for market and social regulation. [ALSO SEE long review as GFB Book of the Month, Sept 2013.]   (WORLD FUTURES)


* 2013 World Population Data Sheet. Carl Haub (PRB Demographer) and Toshika Kamuda (PRB). Washington: Population Reference Bureau (, Sept 2013, 1 p (34x22”), $5. A large wall chart, packed on both sides with valuable data and analyses. Data and estimates are presented for all regions and nations of the world in 19 categories, including population projections to 2025 and 2050, population in 2050 as a multiple of 2013 (1.4 for the world, 2.2 for Africa, 1.2 for Asia, 1.2 for the Americas, 1.0 for Europe), net migration rate, percent of population <15 and 65+, life expectancy, per cent urban, GNI per capita, percent share of income for poorest and wealthiest fifth, and percent of population using improved sanitation. Total World Population, now at 7.14 billion as of mid-2013, is projected to grow to 8.10 billion in 2025 and 9.73 billion in 2050 (up from the 9.49 billion estimate in 2010 and 9.26 billion in 2005). Most Populous Countries in 2013: China (1.36 billion), India (1.28 billion), United States (316 million), Indonesia (249 million) and Brazil (196 million), followed by Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, and Japan. Most Populous Countries in 2050: India (1.65 billion), China (1.31 billion), Nigeria (440 million), United States (400 million), Indonesia (366 million), followed by Pakistan, Brazil, Bangladesh, Congo Dem. Rep., and Ethiopia. Percent of Population Under Age 15 and Over Age 65: Africa (41/4), United States (19/14), Latin America/Caribbean (28/7), Asia (25/7), Europe (16/16). (WORLD FUTURES * POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 2025 & 2050)


* Divided Nations: Why Global Governance is Failing, and What We Can Do About It.  Ian Goldin (Director, Oxford Martin School and Prof of Globalization, Oxford U; former Vice President and Director of Policy, World Bank).  NY: Oxford U Press, May 2013, 207p, $21.95. The UN, World Bank, and the IMF were all created in a post-war era radically different from today's hyper-connected world.  Many big challenges spill over national boundaries, and five are examined: climate change, finance, pandemics, cyber-security, and migration. Global governing bodies created in the 1940s are simply not up to the task of managing such risks.  “Global politics is gridlocked.  There can be no doubt that the system needs radical reform.” (p178) To resolve global challenges, we must move beyond the UN, World Bank, IMF, and WTO.  Global governance institutions for the 21st century must be relevant, legitimate, and effective.  “Accepting that not all global problems require global participation is crucial to solving them.  The key is to get the critical parties—the countries and/or corporations that account for the problem, and those that represent the most affected—to come to agreement.”  (pp.110-111) Transnational and transgovernmental networks have the power to accentuate incentives for cooperation. Five core principles to guide global action: 1) not all issues require global collective action; 2) “selective inclusion” is required so that key actors are engaged; 3) the process of global management must be efficient, with different countries engaging on different issues (“variable geometry”); 4) global management requires legitimacy: rules of engagement in global action must be understandable and acceptable by most countries; 5) “for global action to be effective, there must be some degree of enforceability at the global level” (p176).         (WORLD FUTURES* GLOBAL GOVERNANCE)


* Globalization: A Very Short Introduction (3rd Edition). Manfred Steger (Prof of Pol Sci, U of Hawai'i-Manoa and Prof of Global Studies, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology). NY: Oxford U Press, June 2013, 176p, $11.95pb. Covers all major causes and consequences of globalization, as well as the hotly contested question of whether globalization is, ultimately, a good or a bad thing. Topics include 1) political movements for and against globalization, from WTO protests to the rise in global jihadism; 2) concepts such as "Americanization" and "McDonaldization"; 3) the role of the media and communication technologies in the process of cultural globalization; 4) the connection between economic globalization and multinational corporations, World Bank, IMF, and WTO. This updated edition incorporates all the major global developments in the past four years, including the 2008-2010 global financial crisis, the 2011 Japanese earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster, the 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden, the on-going revolutions in the Middle East, and the rise of social networking such as Facebook and Twitter. (WORLD FUTURES * GLOBALIZATION: INTRODUCTION)


** Crisis of Global Sustainability.  Tapio Kanninen (Senior Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, CUNY Graduate Center; Co-Director, IIS Project on Sustainable Global Governance).  Global Institutions Series, Vol #74.  London & NY Routledge, Jan 2013, 178p, $29.95pb.  Awareness of potentially disastrous consequence of human activity for the planet has been slowly growing worldwide.  Numerous organizations and think tanks are collecting data and disseminating information, yet the public and politicians in many countries show little concern, and the many calls for drastic change have not been taken seriously.  This book explains the sorry state of affairs, discussing on the birth and evolution of the Club of Rome, its early identification of a global crisis and the predicament of mankind, the 1972 Limits to Growth report and the follow-up 1974 Mankind at the Turning Point report, the LTG report and its critics, evolution of concepts and doctrines related to sustainability (e.g. “spaceship earth” in the 1960s, Herman Daly’s “steady-state economy” in the 1970s, Canada’s conserver society project, the 1987 Brundtland Commission report on “sustainable society,” the 1992 Sustainable Netherlands action plan, the 2012 UN High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability [see GFB Book of the Month, June 2012], etc.), intergovernmental action in the 1972-2012 period, climate change negotiations, planetary boundaries [see GFB Book of the Month, Jan 2013], UNEP’s Global Environmental Outlook-5 report, how the UN could be reformed to meet future challenges, creating new institutions and strategies for a global emergency (e.g. Al Gore’s 1992 call for a Global Marshall Plan, Paul Gilding’s one degree war plan, Richard Branson’s Carbon War Room), and thinking about a third generation of international institutions, notably new mechanisms of global monitoring and coordination.

“A fundamental problem for the future” is how to coordinate work of existing organizations and how to integrate them with global and regional decision-making.  “A true global emergency needs a well-coordinated response and not organizations working at cross purposes.” (p127)  Concludes with discussing a proposed Global Crisis Network to coordinate local, national, and regional initiatives with global policies, and to catalyze actions such as a second conference of the UN Charter.  [NOTE: Kanninen was Chief of the Policy Planning Unit in the UN’s Dept of Political Affairs (1998-2005) and has held other UN posts.  The Routledge Global Institutions Series, edited by Thomas G. Weiss of the CUNY Graduate Center and Rorden Wilkinson of the U of Manchester, encompasses 74 published titles and lists 28 books currently under contract.]    (SUSTAINABILITY * WORLD FUTURES * GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS)


A Global Environmental Right.  Stephen Turner (Senior Lecturer, Kingston U).  NY: Earthscan/Routledge, June 2013, 224p, $135 (also as e-book). The development of an international substantive environmental right has long been a contested issue. Concurrently, environmental rights have developed in a fragmented way and to a limited extent through different legal regimes. Turner examines the potential for developing a global environmental right that would create legal duties for all decision-makers relating to the environment and provide the bedrock for a new system of international environmental governance. He analyses not only traditional international environmental law and human rights law, but also the development of corporate law, the development of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) to build an understanding of the wider international legal architecture and why that architecture often leads to poor outcomes for the environment.  Finally, Turner discusses straightforward and logical changes to the architecture that would solve fundamental problems, and argues for a new environmental right that creates clear legal responsibilities. (GLOBAL GOVERNANCE * ENVIRONMENTAL LAW * ENVIRONMENT RIGHT * LAW AND ENVIRONMENT) 


**Global Corruption Report: Education.  Edited by Transparency International.   NY: Earthscan/Routledge, July 2013, 224p, $59.95pb (also e-book). Corruption and poor governance are acknowledged as major impediments to realizing the right to education and to reaching the Millennium Development Goal of universal primary education by 2015. Corruption not only distorts access to education, but affects the quality of education and the reliability of research findings. From corruption in the procurement of school resources and nepotism in the hiring of teachers, to the buying and selling of academic titles and the skewing of research results, major corruption risks can be identified at every level of the education and research systems. Conversely, education serves as a means to strengthen personal integrity and is a critical tool to address corruption effectively. The Global Corruption Report (GCR) is Transparency International’s flagship publication, bringing the expertise of the anti-corruption movement to bear on a specific issue or sector. This report on education consists of more than 70 articles commissioned from experts in the fields of corruption and education, from universities, think-tanks, business, civil society and international organizations. The GCR pulls together cutting edge knowledge on lessons learned, and innovative tools and solutions that exist in order to fight corruption in the education sector.  (EDUCATION * CORRUPTION IN EDUCATION * TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION REPORT)


*Food Security: From Crisis to Global Governance (Routledge Critical Security Studies). Nora McKeon (Food and Agriculture Organization, UN). NY: Routledge, Aug 2013, 224p, $42.95pb.  Discusses concerns for food security in the context of global food governance in the 21st century and highlights the systemic inadequacies of the present food system and of the dominant strategies for achieving food security. Examining the post-World War II history of addressing food issues, McKeon’s work draws lessons from experience, tracing the evolution of three strongly interconnected factors: 1) the institutions in which global decision-making on food security has been exercised, 2) the paradigms on which their strategies and actions have been based, 3) the actors that have influenced decision-making and the interests they represent. Special attention is given to the dynamic links between different levels of decision-making on food security (from the household to the global), key global issues, responses of the international community to the food crisis, and how reforming the Committee on World Food Security can address deficiencies of the present system.  (FOOD SECURITY * GLOBAL GOVERNANCE * DEVELOPMENT)


*The Routledge Handbook of Human Security. Edited by Mary Martin (London School of Economics) and Taylor Owen (Oxford U). NY: Routledge, July 2013, 384p, $205. Human security has grown greatly in importance over the past fifteen years, since the concept was first promoted by the UNDP in its 1993 and 1994 Human Development Reports. The authors fill a gap in the literature on human security and provide a broad overview of human security scholarship and thinking, reflecting the multi-disciplinary perspectives which have informed the development of the concept and its policy use. They also elaborate on how human security has been theorized, and tackle some of the methodological issues which it raises. Three broad aspects of human security thinking are considered: 1) theoretical issues, 2) policy and institutional perspectives, and 3) case studies and empirical work.  Chapters discuss Human Security vs. Human Rights vs. Human Development; the critical view of human security; human and national security; global policy challenges to HS (violence and conflict, development/poverty, disasters, environment, health); economics and human security; human security applications in Canada, Japan, European Union, African Union, the US, Asia, and Latin America; and methodologies, tools, indicators, mapping, etc. (SECURITY * HUMAN SECURITY * DEVELOPMENT * GLOBAL GOVERNANCE)


*Conflict and Cooperation in the Global Commons: A Comprehensive Approach for International Security. Edited by Scott Jasper (retired Navy captain and lecturer, US Naval Postgraduate School, Center for Civil-Military Relations). Washington: Georgetown U Press, Sept 2012, 272p, $29.95pb (also as e-book).  International security and economic prosperity depend on safe access to the shared domains that make up the global commons: maritime, air, space, and cyberspace, which together serve as essential conduits through which international commerce, communication, and governance prosper. However, the global commons are congested, contested, and competitive. In the January 2012 defense strategic guidance, the United States confirmed its commitment “to continue to lead global efforts with capable allies and partners to assure access to and use of the global commons, both by strengthening international norms of responsible behavior and by maintaining relevant and interoperable military capabilities.” The author identifies ways for the US to strengthen and maintain responsible use of the global commons with a view to enhance, align, and unify commercial industry, civil agency, and military perspectives and actions. (GLOBAL COMMONS * SECURITY)


*Meeting Global Challenges through Better Governance: International Co-operation in Science, Technology and Innovation. OECD.  Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, June 2012, 244p, $58 (e-book).  In recent years, the need to address social and environmental challenges has grown in urgency. Climate change, global health, food security and many other global challenges cross national borders and affect a wide range of actors. Yet, in most cases, single governments cannot provide effective solutions. Global challenges call for co-operation on a global scale to build capacity in science, technology and innovation (STI) at both national and international levels. The report looks at how international co-operation in STI can be scaled up and its scope broadened, as well as how different modes of governance of international co-operation in STI function and lead to effective and efficient collaboration. Case studies focus on 1) the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (a 40-year old strategic partnership that supports a network of 15 international agricultural research centers working for eradicating hunger and poverty at the global level; CGIAR recently adjusted its organizational structure); 2) The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and its Global Health Program (whose governance mechanisms support technological progress and particularly development of new vaccines); 3) the Group on Earth Observations (which coordinates and integrates global activities related to production and dissemination of Earth observations to meet global challenges such as climate change, agriculture and health; its approach to developing the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) within 10 years affects its governance model); 4) the International Atomic Energy Agency (two IAEA programs directly related to international co-operation in STI and deployment of new knowledge and innovations lack an implementing structure at the country level, but rely on built partnerships with member country organizations or countries belonging to the UN); 5) the International Energy Agency (fosters multilateral research collaboration on energy-related issues); 6) The Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (a regional organization that deals with the impact of global change); 7) European Joint Programming Initiatives (decribes the JPI on agriculture, food security, and climate change). The report also reviews the literature on five dimensions of international STI governance: priority setting, funding and spending arrangements, intellectual property, putting STI into practice, and capacity building.  (GLOBAL GOVERNANCE * SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY * WORLD FUTURES * INNOVATION)


*Handbook of Global Environmental Politics (second edition).  Edited by Paul Dauvergne (U of British Columbia, Canada).   Northampton MA: Edward Elgar, July 2012, 576p, $260. Maps the latest theoretical and empirical research in the field and discusses concerns for the health of the planet and how they might best be addressed. While the introductory chapters explore the intellectual trends and evolving parameters in the field of global environmental politics, the remaining ones tackle three broad themes: 1) states, governance and security; 2) capitalism, trade, and corporations; and 3) knowledge and civil society.  Key topics include the global commons, renewable energy, the effectiveness of environmental cooperation, regulations and corporate standards, trade liberalization and global environmental governance, and science and environmental citizenship.  This new edition offers some 30 new articles and six essential updates. (WORLD FUTURES * GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICS)


* Ready for Anything: Designing Resilience for a Transforming World.  Anthony Hodgson (Centre for Systems Studies, U of Hull; founder, Decision Integrity Ltd.; World Modelling Research Coordinator, International Futures Forum).  Axminster, Devon UK: Triarchy Press, Dec 2011, 108p, $25 (Amazon Kindle edition, $9.99).  The opening chapter describes “The Global Predicament” of 7+ billion people currently using resources of about 1.5 Earths to support our collective lifestyle.  How can we understand and think creatively about the interconnected problems that we face (“The Mess”) without getting overwhelmed by complexity and uncertainty?  Hodgson offers The World System Model and a practical application (The IFF World Game) that have helped many different groups to ask the right questions and generate their own resilient and adaptive.  The model encompasses 12 interconnected categories: Worldview, Wellbeing, Food, Trade, Energy, Climate, Biosphere, Water, Habitat, Wealth, Governance, and Community.  Case studies show how the model has been used in eight different situations, from a national economics research council to a city school, to find sustainable ways of “one-planet living.” (WORLD FUTURES * IFF WORLD GAME * WORLD SYSTEM MODEL * RESILIENCE * SUSTAINABILITY * METHODS)


2012 State of the Future (Executive Edition).  Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu (Millennium Project).  Washington: MP, Aug 2012, 107p, $39.95 (; ).  The 16th annual report providing “a context for global thinking and improved understanding of global issues, opportunities, challenges, and strategies.”  It is based on a network 46 MP Nodes of individuals and institutions in every global region.  As in earlier editions since 1996, the main part of the report is devoted to an overview of 15 Global Challenges: 1) sustainable development and climate change; 2) sufficient clean water; 3) population growth and food production brought into balance; 4) promoting genuine democracy; 5) promoting global long-term perspectives in policymaking (a Global Future Collective Intelligence System is needed, and heads of government should have a foresight office connected by a CIS to government agencies); 6) global convergence of information technologies to work for everyone; 7) encouraging ethical market economies to help reduce the rich/poor gap (improved free trade, increased economic freedom, a level playing field guaranteed by an honest judicial system, reduced corruption, etc.); 8) reducing the threat of new and re-emerging diseases; 9) improving decision-making (“many of the world’s institutions and decision-making processes are inefficient, slow, and ill-informed”; common trans-institutional platforms are needed); 10) new security strategies to reduce conflict and terrorism; 11) empowering women; 12) addressing transnational organized crime networks; 13) meeting growing energy demands safely and efficiently; 14) accelerating sci/tech breakthroughs to improve the human condition  (e.g., through synthetic biology, nano- robots and nano-medicine, new physics enabling new forms of energy, a global collective intelligence system); 15) incorporating ethical considerations into global decisions (so as to promote human rights and reduce corruption).

Also includes 1) the annual State of the Future Index of 28 indicators showing where humanity is winning and losing; 2) results of the 2012 RTD (Real-Time Delphi) panel on the probability of key developments by 2021, e.g.: increase of CO2 burden by 20% (52%), economic expansion of >5% from nanotechnology and other new technology (47%), global economic depression (42%), cost-effective desalination increases safe water 20% worldwide (39%), a pandemic on the scale of HIV/AIDS (33%), etc.; 3) a RTD study with 179 participants on how gender stereotypes are thought to be changing from 50 years ago to 50 years in the future; 4) a RTD study with >100 experts on “Cooperatives 2030” as “a major generator of employment and development” (in line with the UN’s designation of 2012 as the International Year of Cooperation), noting the emergence of the concept of “non-ownership” as distinct from private ownership or state ownership; 5) a RTD survey of 16 hopes and 16 fears in Kuwait involving 193 participants; 6) a chapter on “Future of Ontology” (an emerging science and engineering discipline analogous to computer science some 50 years ago; ontologies form the underpinnings that allow data to “interoperate” or for machines to make useful “inferences”).

[NOTE:  By far the most ambitious of recent sustainability visions, promoting fresh perspectives on crime and corruption (Challenges #12, 15), ethical markets and global decisions (Challenges #7, 15), and improved decision-making (Challenges 5, 6, 9, 14) that are absent from more conventional agendas such as WBCSD and CIGI.  However, the presentation of abundant detail is unwieldy, error-ridden, and probably overwhelming to many, especially in the 10,000 page electronic version which presents the cumulative work of the MP.] (WORLD FUTURES * MILLENNIUM PROJECT)


Post-2015 Development Agenda: Goals, Targets and Indicators. Barry Carin (Senior Fellow, CIGI) et al. Waterloo, Canada: Centre for International Governance Innovation, Oct 2012, 63p (  The UN’s Millennium Development Goals for a more peaceful, prosperous, and just world, launched in 2000, set specific targets to be met by 2015, with indicators to measure progress.  By 2015, the world will have met some of the MDG’s key targets, such as halving the poverty rate, and will be close to achieving primary education for all children.  But health goals are difficult, and Africa lags behind, despite substantial progress since 2000.  “Overall, the MDGs have been remarkably successful in focusing attention and mobilizing resources to address the major gaps in human development.  Building on the MDGs, the global community should move beyond meeting basic human needs and promote dynamic, inclusive, and sustainable development.  Future goals must reach beyond traditional development thinking to become sustainable one-world goals.” Based on discussions at a 2011 meeting in Italy, 11 potential “Bellagio Goals” are proposed: 1) inclusive growth for dignified livelihoods and adequate standards of living; 2) sufficient food and water; 3) appropriate education and skills for productive participation in society; 4) good health for the best possible physical and mental well-being; 5) security for ensuring freedom from violence; 6) gender equality, enabling women and men to participate and benefit equally in society; 7) building resilient communities and nations for reduced disaster risk; 8) improving infrastructure for access to essential information, services, and opportunities; 9) empowering people to realize their civil and political rights; 10) sustainable management of the biosphere, enabling people and planet to thrive together; 11) global governance and equitable rules for realizing human potential.  Much of this report (pp30-58) reviews a menu of indicators and data sources for these goals, so as to measure progress and galvanize public support.  [NOTE: An important step forward, nicely complementing—albeit complexifying--the WBCSD vision (above) and the MP challenges (below).] (WORLD FUTURES * DEVELOPMENT POST-2015 * GOALS FOR POST-2015 DEVELOPMENT)


Vision 2050: The New Agenda for Business. World Business Council for Sustainable Development.  WBCSD, Dec 2010, 80p, $15 (download in 11 languages at ).  Lays out a pathway leading to a global population of some 9 billion people living well, within the resources of the planet, by 2050.  This report results from an 18-month effort by CEOs and experts with >200 companies, and external stakeholders in some 20 countries.  It produced 70 measures of success and 350 milestones for the next four decades using 10 tracks: energy, buildings, mobility, materials, economy, governance, people, agriculture, forests and ecosystems/biodiversity.   It also lists 40 “must haves”: things that must happen over the coming decade to make a sustainable planetary society possible.  This includes: 1) incorporating the costs of externalities--starting with carbon, water, and ecosystem services—into the structure of the marketplace; 2) doubling agricultural output without increasing the amount of land or water used; 3) halting deforestation and doubling yields from planted forests; 4) halving 2005-level carbon emissions worldwide by 2050, by shifting to low-carbon energy systems, improved energy efficiency, and universal access to low-carbon mobility; 5) increasing re-use of materials in manufacturing by a factor of 4 to 10.  This will require great cooperation between governments, NGOs, and the private sector to deal with the “wicked problem” of sustainability.  The report is a best-case scenario, a tool for thought leadership, and a platform to begin the dialogue that must take place.  If successful, “a shift to sustainability will trigger trillions of dollars in new investments in infrastructure, technology, and human services.” [ALSO SEE “To Save the Planet, Listen to Everyone” by Robert E. Horn of Stanford U (New Scientist, 17 Dec 2011, 28-31), who participated in the WBCSD project by preparing an accompanying “info- mural” –a supersized laminated wall chart translating these ideas into visual language (available at Foresight Canada from This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ).  Horn goes on to acknowledge weaknesses of Vision 2050: failure to adequately deal with poverty and population (also human rights and failed states), no mention of oceans and displaced people, and use of the IPCC proposed  limit of 450ppm of CO2 which may require reduction to 350ppm to keep climate within tolerable limits.]     (SUSTAINABILITY * VISION 2050: WBCSD * WORLD FUTURES)


* Anthropology and Contemporary Human Problems (6th Edition).  John H. Bodley (Regents Prof of Anthropology, Washington State U).  AltaMira Press (dist by Rowman & Littlefield), April 2012, 400p, $79pb (also as e-book). We live in a time of global mega-problems of unsustainable growth and consumption, resource depletion, ecosystem degradation, global warming, escalating energy costs, poverty, and conflict. Anthropology makes it possible to find solutions. The world is out of balance with misdirected growth by the elite. The author of Cultural Anthropology (AltaMira, 5th edition, 2011), and Victims of Progress (AltaMira, 5th edition, 2008) offers examples from prehistoric and modern tribal societies along side of ancient imperial and contemporary commercial societies. (GROWTH MISDIRECTED * WORLD FUTURES * SUSTAINABILITY * SOCIETY)

*Global Demographic Change and Its Implications for Military PowerMartin C. Libicki, Howard J. Shatz, andJulie E. Taylor.  Santa Monica CA: RAND Corp, 2011, 170p, $32pb.  Projects working age populations through 2050; reviews the influence of demographics on manpower, national income and expenditures, and human capital; and examines how changes in these factors may affect the ability of states to carry out military missions. Also considers the implications of these changes for other aspects of international security.  Topics include: long-term trends in national GDP, the economic burden of aging populations, the influence of demographics on the causes of war, and the impact of demographic trends on military power projection.  (MILITARY POWER AND POPULATION IN 2050 * GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE * WORLD FUTURES * SECURITY AND DEMOGRAPHICS)


* Business Regulation and Non-State Actors: Whose Standards? Whose Development?  Edited by Peter Utting (UNRISD, Switzerland), Darryl Reed and Ananya Mukherjee Reed (both, York U, Canada).  NY: Routledge, Jan 2012, 336p, $140 (also as e-book).  Assesses the achievements and limitations of a new set of non-state or multi-stakeholder institutions that are concerned with improving the social and environmental record of business, and holding corporations to account.  Contents focus on the International Organization for Standardization, the Forest Stewardship Council, global retail strategies and Wal-Mart’s CSR regime, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, blood diamonds, non-state actors and development, peoples’ tribunals in Latin America, International Framework Agreements and Development, IFOAM and the institutionalization of organic agriculture, the World Fair Trade Organization, Fairtrade International, etc.  (WORLD GOVERNANCE * BUSINESS: GLOBAL REGULATION * BUSINESS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION)


* Worldly Leadership:  Alternative Wisdoms for a Complex World. Edited by Sharon Turnbull (Visiting Prof, U of Gloucestershire Business School and U of Worcester Business School), Peter Case (Prof of Organization Studies, Bristol Business School, U of the West of England), Doris Schedlitzki (Bristol Business School) and Peter Simpson (Bristol Business School). NY & UK: Palgrave Macmillan, Jan 2012, 312p, $95.  Brings together non-western, indigenous and eastern perspectives on leadership. Leadership theory has for too long been the exclusive domain of western academics developing leadership theories from the perspective of western institutions. Worldly leadership calls for pooling of the combined leadership wisdoms from all parts of the globe—the internationalization of leadership.  Looks at women’s leadership, as well as leadership in China, Iran, the Arab Middle East, Pakistan, India, and Russia.  (LEADERSHIP: NON-WESTERN * WORLD FUTURES)


* Improving the Governance of International Migration: The Transatlantic Council on MigrationThe Global Commission on International Migration.  Bertelsmann Stiftung (dist. by Brookings); copublished with the Migration Policy Institute (dist. by Brookings), March 2012, 200p, $26pb.  There is no formal, coherent, multilateral framework governing the global flow of migrants, and most actors agree that some greater cooperation on migration is needed.  Responds to three key questions: 1) What are the steps to build a more cooperative system of governance?; 2) What do we hope to achieve through greater international cooperation?; and 3) Who or what is to be governed? (WORLD GOVERNANCE * MIGRATION GOVERNANCE) 


* Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power.  Zbigniew Brzezinski (Prof of Foreign Policy, Johns Hopkins U).  NY:  Basic Books, Jan 2012, $26.   After disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US was left standing as the only global super-power.  But this condition did not last long, due to costly foreign unilateralism and the financial catastrophe of 2008, at a time when the East demonstrated a surprising capacity for economic growth.  Brzezinski, the former National Security Advisor to President Carter, addresses four major questions: 1) implications of the changing distribution of global power from West to East, and the new reality of a “politically awakened humanity”; 2) why America’s global appeal is waning, the symptoms of US domestic and international decline, and how America wasted the unique global opportunity offered by the end of the Cold War; 3) the likely geopolitical consequences if America declines by 2025, and whether China can assume a central role in world affairs; 4) America’s desirable long-term geopolitical goals for shaping a more vital and larger West, while engaging cooperatively with the emerging and dynamic new East.  “Without an America that is economically vital, socially appealing, responsibly powerful, and capable of sustaining an intelligent foreign engagement, geopolitical prospects for the West could become increasingly grave.”  Mounting global strife makes it all the more essential that America does not retreat into an ignorant garrison-state mentality or wallow in cultural hedonism. (WORLD FUTURES * U.S.: GEOPOLITICAL GOALS)


* The Social Conquest of  EarthEdward O. Wilson (Prof Emeritus of Biology, Harvard U).  NY: Liveright/W. W. Norton, April 2012, 352p, $27.95pb.  Explains the origin of the human condition and why it resulted in our domination of the Earth’s biosphere.  Addresses three fundamental questions of religion, philosophy, and science while “overturning the famous theory that evolution naturally encourages creatures to put family first.”  Draws on biology and social behavior to show that group selection, not kin selection, is the primary driving force of human evolution.  The sources of morality, religion, and the creative arts are fundamentally biological in nature.    (HUMAN CONDITION AND EARTH * EVOLUTION OF HUMANITY)
* The Sphere Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response (2011 Edition).  The Sphere Project.  Practical Action Publishing/NCR (dist by Stylus), April 2011, 350p, $20.95pb.  The Sphere Project is an initiative to determine and promote standards by which the global community responds to the plight of people affected by disasters.  Initiated in 1997 by a number of humanitarian NGOs and the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, it recognizes the right of people affected by disasters to re-establish their lives and livelihoods.  The Handbook contains a Humanitarian Charter, Protection Principles, and  Core Standards and Minimum Standards in four key life-saving sectors: 1) water supply, sanitation and hygiene promotion; 2) food security and nutrition; 3) shelter, settlement and non-food items; and 4) health action.  (HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE * DISASTERS & HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTIONS * SPHERE PROJECT (HUMANITARIAN STANDARDS)


* Welcome to the Future Cloud: Mobile People, Green Profit & Happy Countries.  Marcel Bullinga (Amsterdam NL;  Future Check, 2011, 190p, E29.50.  Futurist and keynote speaker describes The Cloud as “the new face of the 21st century: the next wave of global innovation.”  The Cloud is a hyper mix of real life and virtual life, connecting information, money, energy, people, cars, houses, and cities.  It will mature somewhere between 2020 and 2030, and solve most but not all current crises (energy, climate, population, financial system—the only real crisis is hyper-diversity in our cities leading to loss of cohesion and clash of cultures).  Everything will be Cloud: around 2025 we will have cheap and unlimited energy from the sun, local money stimulating local economies, intelligent “anti-fraud” money to reduce fraud, personal factories producing cheap and high-quality 3D products, urban farms as standard, green buildings, CO2 turned into fuel, personal dashboard/control centers, more time left as we work and relax in our self-driving electric car, better education due to high quality and cheap distant education on screen, open access science and government, more consumer power thanks to the multipurpose mobile, a global economic boom due to social robots and smart software, mass immigration, much more efficient law enforcement, supermaterials made from abundant local sources, the last paper book printed, all information and amusement in personalized form, administrative red tape reduced  90% by smart software, China and India in the top ten of happy countries--BUT many Cloud Addicts who have lost the ability to concentrate and focus.  [Note: A book unlike any other: slickly produced with photos, colorful graphics, glossy paper, and many overlapping lists of 2025 predictions.  Obviously upbeat and hyper-techie; provocative and somewhat plausible.  Generally informal and frenetic style, but cites some respectable sources.  For sharp contrast, see Millett’s “Managing the Future.”]  (WORLD FUTURES * TECHNOLOGY * CLOUD TECHNOLOGY)
* A Quest for Humanity:  The Good Society in a Global World.   Menno Boldt (Prof Emeritus of Sociology, U of Lethbridge, Alberta).  Toronto: U of Toronto Press, Dec 2011, 252p, $24.95pb.  How can we create a humane social order and place humankind on the path to a Good Society?  First, we need to challenge some cherished beliefs, recognizing that Western democracy and constitutional human rights are fundamentally flawed doctrines. “Human-rights doctrine lacks the authenticity to be accorded the status of constitutional supremacy that trumps all other laws and community moral standards.”  It generates antagonistic interest-group alignments, and excludes economic justice from the list of constitutional rights.  To realize the Good Society in a global world, where cyber-technology diminishes personal connections and foreshadows further regression from humanity, “we need a morality that is based on an authentic universal humane principle that will inspire common cause and commitment to individual liberty, social justice, human dignity, and humanity for peoples the world over.” (p162)  The UN can provide moral leadership to humanize the world by proclaiming the concept of humane mutuality as the pre-eminent ethical standard for all social relations.  A “global moral social order” would embody the universal aspiration of humankind to fully realize everyone’s potential for humanity.  It transcends the barriers of languages, cultures, belief systems, and national interests, and will work against inequality and oppression, as all people see themselves and others as equal in their claim to human dignity and humanity.  Chapters discuss the theory and reality of globalization, globalization and the erosion of US hegemony, social order in the modern age, the future of Western democracy, scientific and theological myths of reality, and social order by design.  [Note: Boldt studied with long-time futurist Wendell Bell of Yale U, who provides a back-cover blurb and to whom this book is dedicated.]  (PdmBrk) (WORLD FUTURES * HUMAN RIGHTS DOCTRINE QUESTIONED * MORAL SOCIAL ORDER * “GOOD SOCIETY” IN A GLOBAL WORLD * GLOBALIZATION AND THE GOOD SOCIETY)


* Why Geography Matters: More Than Ever (Second Edition).  Harm de Blij (Prof of Geography, Michigan State U).  NY: Oxford UP, Aug 2012, 320p, $16.95pb.  America has become “the world’s most geographically illiterate society of consequence.”  Despite increasing global interconnectivity and rapid change, Americans seem to be less informed and less knowledgeable about the rest of the world than ever.  By improving our understanding of the world’s geography, we can better respond to the events around us, and better prepare ourselves to face the global challenges ahead.  Topics include climate change along with significant weather extremes, the economic crisis, the burgeoning presence of China, the troubling disarray of the EU, the nuclear ambitions of North Korea, the terrible conflict in Equitorial Africa, and the Arab Spring. (Also see The Power of Place: Geography, Destiny, and Globalization’s Rough Landscape by Harm de Blij, Oxford UP, 2002.)    (GEOGRAPHIC ILLITERACY: U.S. * GEOGRAPHY * EDUCATION * WORLD FUTURES)


* Future Global Shocks: Improving Risk Governance.   OECD International Futures Programme.   Paris: OECD, Aug 2011, 138p, $28.  In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis global leaders are acutely aware that another systemic shock could severely challenge economic recovery, social cohesion, and even political stability.  Visible indicators of vulnerability persist in the forms of economic imbalances, volatile commodity prices and currencies, colossal public debts and severe budget deficits.  There is a palpable sense of urgency to identify and assess risks arising from vulnerabilities in these crucial systems, and to develop policies that will bolster efforts for prevention, early warning, and response to ensure sustained economic prosperity.  Topics include the drivers of future global shocks (earthquakes, volcanoes, financial crises, political revolutions), risk assessments (particularly understanding of contagion and amplification effects), preparation tools (risk maps and threat models), emergency management (surveillance and monitoring capabilities, readily available countermeasures, automatic backup systems), and strategic approaches for managing future global shocks (vulnerabilities of economic integration require strengthening governing capacities through international institutions and norms and building societal resilience).   [For a lengthy review, see GFB Book of the Month, Jan 2012.]                                         (METHODS * RISK MANAGEMENT * WORLD FUTURES)
* Building Global Democracy? Civil Society and Accountable Global Governance.  Edited by Jan Aart Scholte (U of Warwick).  NY: Cambridge U Press, May 2011, 434p, $32.99pb.  The scale, effectiveness and legitimacy of global governance lag far behind the world's needs. Examines how far civil society involvement provides an answer to these problems. Does civil society make global governance more democratic? Have citizen action groups raised the accountability of global bodies that deal with challenges such as climate change, financial crises, conflict, disease and inequality? What circumstances have promoted (or blocked) civil society efforts to make global governance institutions more democratically accountable? What could improve these outcomes in the future? Draws on studies of 13 global institutions (including the UN, G-8, OECD, WTO, ICANN, IMF, the Commonwealth, the Islamic conference, and the global governance of climate change) and critically assesses what has and has not worked in efforts to make global bodies answer to publics and states.(GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
* Human Development Report 2009 — Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and DevelopmentUnited Nations Development Programme.  NY: United Nations Publications, Nov 2009, 232p, $43 (sales #E.09.III.B.1).  For many people around the world moving away from their home town or village can be the best – sometimes the only – option to improve their life chances.  Traces the contours of human movement (who moves where, when, and why), and explores how better policies towards mobility can enhance human development.  Offers practical measures that can improve prospects on arrival, which in turn will have large benefits for both destination communities and places of origin.             (MIGRATION AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT * HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT * HUMAN MOBILITY)
** Israeli Statecraft: National Security Challenges and Responses.  Yehezkel Dror (Prof of Pol Sci and Pub Adm Emeritus, Hebrew U of Jerusalem).  NY: Routledge, July 2011, 246p.  Former staff member at RAND and author of The Capacity to Govern: A Report to the Club of Rome (Frank Cass, 2002) defines “statecraft” as “coherent, long-term, and broadband political-security paradigms, assessments, frames of appreciation, orientations, stances, and principles.”  Chapters discuss ten world mega-trends and one “mega-invariance” (continuous conflict and bloodshed, “likely to continue and escalate”), Israel’s uniqueness and its arena in the 21C world, conflict morphology, conflict system dynamics, a new Middle East peace paradigm (“Israeli embassy in Riyadh”), a new global paradigm (Israel “dwelling in the world”) and much more.  [NOTE:  An extraordinary book of creative, critical, and wide-ranging scholarship (some 900 references), to be further explicated as GFB Book of the Month for September 2011.  Although largely concerned with Israeli policy, the chapter on mega-trends deserves wide attention.](WORLD FUTURES * ISRAEL * STATECRAFT * SECURITY * GLOBAL MEGATRENDS)
* 2011 World Population Data Sheet: The World at 7 BillionCarl Haub (PRB Demographer) and Toshiko Kaneda (PRB).  Washington: Population Reference Bureau, July 2011, one page (34 x 22”), $4 (free download at  A large wall chart, packed on both sides with valuable data and analyses.  Presents data and estimates for all regions and nations of the world in 19 categories, such as population projections to 2025 and 2050, population in 2050 as a multiple of 2011 (1.4 for the world; 2.2 for Africa, 1.3 for Asia, 1.0 for Europe), percent of population <15 and 65+, elderly support ratio in 2010 and 2050, percent of population with HIV/AIDS, percent of population with improved water supply, and income per capita.  World Population Growth, now at 6.99 billion as of mid-2011, is projected to grow to 8.08 billion by 2025 (15.7% growth) and 9.59 billion by 2050 (37.2% growth, up from the 9.49 billion estimate in 2010 and 9.26 billion in 2005).  Top Three Countries: India will grow from 1.24 billion in 2011 to 1.46 billion in 2025 and 1.69 billion in 2050; China will grow from its #1 position of 1.35 billion in 2011 to 1.40 billion in 2025, shrinking back to 1.31 billion in 2050; United States will grow from 312 million in 2011 to 351 million in 2025 and 423 million in 2050.  A companion publication, The World at 7 Billion (Population Bulletin, 66:2, July 2011, 12p) notes that the 6th and 7th billion were each added in 12 years, and that “it is entirely possible that the 8th billion will be added in 12 years as well (by 2023), placing us squarely in the middle of history’s most rapid population expansion.  This prospect seems to run counter to the prevailing belief that concern over population growth is a thing of the past.”  [NOTE: Up-to-date, intelligently presented, authoritative, low-cost, and now available as a free download.  Note the upward creep in estimated population for 2050.  For more extensive analysis of the 2010 Data Sheet, see GFB Book of the Month for August 2010.]  
**  2011 State of the FutureJerome C. Glenn (Director, Millennium Project), Theodore J. Gordon (Senior Fellow, MP), and Elizabeth Florescu (Director of Research, MP).  Washington: The Millennium Project, Aug 2011, 117p (8x11”), $49.95 with 8,000-page CD (   The 15th annual edition of a unique and ambitious project that seeks to provide “a context for global thinking and improved understanding of global issues, opportunities, challenges, and strategies.”  Designed to provide “an independent global capacity,” it is realized by a steadily growing network of 40 worldwide project Nodes (up from 35 Nodes in 2010, 29 in 2007, and 18 in 2003), involving >700 people in last year’s studies (and >3,000 people over the 15 years of the Project).
Global Challenges.  As in earlier reports, 15 Challenges are assessed in compact two-page reports on sustainable development, sufficient clean water, balancing population growth and resources, encouraging genuine democracy, making policy more sensitive to long-term global perspectives, making ICTs work for all, encouraging ethical market economies, reducing threats of new and reemerging diseases, improving decision-making capacity, reducing terrorism and ethnic conflicts, empowering women, dealing with transnational organized crime, meeting growing energy demands, accelerating sci/tech breakthroughs, and incorporating ethics into global decisions.  Each two-page report includes brief “Regional Considerations” for five world areas.
State of the Future Index.  A quantitative measure based on 28 variables, first introduced ten years ago, showing “Where we are winning” (improved literacy, school enrollment, water access, Internet use, HIV prevalence, etc), “Where we are losing” (CO2 emissions, temperature anomalies, levels of corruption, refugees), and “Where there is uncertainty” (unemployment, forest areas, freedom of expression).  Overall, the 2011 SOFI “shows that the 10-year future for the world is getting better,” although “in many areas where we are winning we are not winning fast enough” and there are some areas where we are losing that “could have quite serious impacts.”
Other Features.  “Egypt 2020” presents a real-time Delphi conducted by the Cairo Node of the MP, on probabilities of 34 developments that might shape the future of Egypt.  “Future Arts, Media, and Entertainment” considers the likelihood of 32 elements that could be dominant by 2020 (e.g., ubiquitous computing, augmented reality, multi-touch displays, telepresence).  “Latin American Scenarios 2030” offers four scenarios ranging from Region in Flames and Technology as Ideology, to Death and Rebirth and Latin American Success.  Emerging Environmental Security Issues summarizes recent events and related issues for the US Army Environmental Policy Institute (a project begun in 2002 that has identified >2,500 items such as electronic waste, growing demand for rare earth elements, more climate-related disasters, disappearing glaciers, etc.).
Some Conclusions.  “Global challenges facing humanity are trans-national in nature and trans-institutional in solution.”  The world should move from governance by a mosaic of sometimes conflicting national policies to “a world increasingly governed by coordinated and mutually supporting global policies implemented at national and local levels.”  The global financial crisis clearly demonstrates the need for global systems of analysis and policy.  The world needs hardheaded idealists, and improved financial, economic, environmental, and social behaviors; otherwise, the long-term future is in jeopardy.
[NOTE:  A heroic synthesis that continues to be the best introduction to a broad range of major trends, issues, and long-term remedies.  However, the bottom line of the SOFI deserves closer questioning, in that it is quite possible to win battles while still losing the overall war; it is not necessarily a matter of “not winning fast enough,” but quite possibly of growing inadequacy despite gains, e.g. in water and energy.  For more extensive analysis of the 2010 SOF report, see GFB Book of the Month for Sept 2010.] (WORLD FUTURES * STATE OF THE FUTURE INDEX * EGYPT 2020 * REGIONS/NATIONS)
* Patterns of Potential Human Progress, Volume 3: Improving Global Health—Forecasting the Next 50 Years. Barry B. Hughes (Prof of Pol Sci and Director, Pardee Center for International Futures, U of Denver) and four others. Boulder CO: Paradigm Publishers, Jan 2011, 352p (8x11”), $49.95pb.  (Free PDF download at  Uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore prospects for human development that appear to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to move in desired directions.  Volume 1 explored prospects for reducing global poverty and Volume 2 considered education [see Pardee Center in GFB index].  This volume focuses on possible futures for the health of peoples, health outcomes we might expect given current patterns of development, opportunities for intervention and achieving alternative health futures, and how improved health futures might affect broader prospects of countries, regions, and the world.  Topics include measuring the disease burden, drivers of health, proximate risk factors (undernutrition, obesity, tobacco use), environmental risk factors (sanitation, air pollution, climate change), and integrated scenario analysis.                                                                                         (WORLD FUTURES * PARDEE
* The Biggest Wakeup Call in HistoryRichard A. Slaughter (Director, ; former president, World Futures Studies Federation).  Indooroopilly, Queensland: Foresight International, Dec 2010, 233p, $30; $20 PDF.  We are in the midst of “a planetary emergency,” with our world slipping deeper into crisis every year, no simple solutions, no easy exits.  “The only way forward that makes sense is to seek clarity on what we are facing and mobilize on a society-wide and global scale to deal with it.  Anything less will consign our children to a diminished and unliveable world.  And “we have precious little time to act if we’re to avoid the worst outcomes.”  Chapters describe the challenge to civilization (simply stated, “humanity has collectively outgrown its world”), the Anthropocene Era in which humanity has become a global force, the oceans, disappearing species, reality avoidance under business-as-usual, technology as “the answer,” the Limits to Growth debate, the credibility of “overshoot and collapse,” the Gaia hypothesis, the failure of neo-liberalism, confronting the collective shadow (repressed aspects of consciousness), criminality and profiteering, the fantasy economy of intemperate speculation, and the negative contributions of globalization and the Internet. Part Two, “The Search for Solutions,” considers reframing climate change through the Integral method (involving four quadrants, four levels of complexity, and six value levels), peak oil and the global energy dilemma, David Holmgren’s energy descent scenarios, transition strategies (the “one degree war plan” of Jorgen Randers and Paul Gilding, Tony Fry’s design futuring, transition towns, the State of the World Forum, the Stern review in the UK, the Garnaut report in Australia), enhancing awareness through Integral futures, transformation in the four quadrants, and post-collapse and post-descent futures to counter “disaster fatigue.” 
* Future Global ShocksOrganization for Economic Co-operation and Development.  Paris: OECD, April 2011, 150p, $40pb.  Often events begin as small and local, but their impacts may rapidly propagate across national frontiers, producing major international crises.  Explores driving forces behind potential global shocks and how major disruptive events–pandemics, critical infrastructure failures, and civic unrest–can spread through economic and social systems.  Examines strengths and weaknesses of current approaches to managing global shocks, and sets out proposals that aim to improve the resilience of economic and social systems to such damaging disruptions. 
                                                            (WORLD FUTURES * GLOBAL SHOCKS: MANAGEMENT)
* Global Civics: Responsibilities and Rights in an Interdependent World.  Edited by Hakan Altinay (Senior Fellow in Global Economy, Brookings Institution; former Exec Director, Open Society Foundation-Turkey).  Foreword by Kemal Devi? (Vice-President, Brookings; former Director, UN Development Programme).  Washington: Brookings Institution Press, Feb 2011, 145p, $18.95pb.  “A conversation about global civics is needed, and university campuses are ideal venues for these conversations to start” (Martii Ahtisaari, 2008 Nobel Peace Laureate).  We cannot achieve the cooperation needed for a globalizing century without developing some sort of “global civics”.  Self-interest will remain an integral component of national policies.  It neither should nor can be the only mechanism at work.  Our perception of worldwide connection and solidarity has to deepen, and our sense of being part of a global community must strengthen.  Explores how to build an effective curriculum for global civics, so that institutions of higher learning worldwide can teach it and take a leading role in advancing that agenda.
** Freedom in the World 2011: The Annual Survey of Political Right and Civil Liberties.  Freedom House.  Lanham MD: Rowman & Littlefield, Jan 2011, 446p, $49.95pb (also e-book).  Published annually since 1972, this comparative assessment provides survey ratings and narrative reports on 193 countries and a group of 15 select territories.  This is “the fifth consecutive year in which global freedom suffered a decline”.    The report also highlights “increasing truculence of the world’s most powerful authoritarian regimes.”  [Note: A very detailed survey, dividing countries into categories of Free, Partly Free, and Not Free.  Each 3-8 page country report describes population, income per capita, life expectancy, religious and ethnic groups, political rights, and civil liberties rated on a 1-7 scale, with a ratings timeline for the past 10 years.  Also see the Freedom of the Press annual survey by Freedom House, which reports stagnation and declines worldwide over the past 10 years. 
* The Evolution of International Human Rights: Visions Seen (Third Edition).  Paul Gordon Lauren (Regents Prof, U of Montana).  Philadelphia: U of Pennsylvania Press, Feb 2011, 480p, $34.95pb.  On the truly universal nature of the human rights movement and the dramatic transformation of a world patterned by centuries of human rights abuses into a global community that recognizes that the way governments treat their own people is a matter of international concern and sets the goal of human rights “for all peoples and all nations”.  This new edition Includes scholarship on the new Human Rights Council, International Criminal Court, Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine, terrorism and torture, globalization and modern technology, and activists in NGOs.   (WORLD FUTURES * HUMAN RIGHTS)
* Empire of Humanity: A History of HumanitarianismMichael Barnett (University Prof of International Affairs, George Washington U).  Ithaca NY: Cornell U Press, April 2011, 296p, $29.95.   Ties the past to present and describes humanitarianism’s distinct global ages – imperial, postcolonial, and liberal – connecting the antislavery and missionary movements in the 19th century with today’s peace-building missions, Cold War interventions in Biafra and Cambodia, and post-Cold War humanitarian interventions in the Great Lakes of Africa and the Balkans.  Discusses creation of the International Committee of the Red Cross in 1893,  emergence of the major international humanitarian organizations of the 20th century, and the conceptual division within humanitarianism between the emergency camp that wants to save lives and nothing else and the alchemist camp that wants to remove the causes of suffering.   Humanitarianism has developed a metropolis of global institutions of care, the governance of which exercises power over the very individuals it hopes to emancipate.  Contrary to the view that humanitarianism is a symbol of moral progress, Barnett contends that it has undergone its most impressive gains after moments of radical inhumanity.  
* The Unfinished Global Revolution: The Pursuit of a New International PoliticsMark Malloch-Brown (former World Bank VP, head of UN Development Program, and UN deputy secretary-general).  NY:  Penguin, Feb 2011, 288p, $27.95.  The central predicament of the 21st century is that, as we become more integrated, we have also become less governed.  Over the past few decades US domestic problems (from unemployment to environmental distress) increasingly have international roots.  As national politicians lose control to impersonal global forces, they will be forced to become more effective participants in international mechanisms such as the UN, that may offer the only viable solutions.  We need global institutions to govern the global economy, public health, poverty ,and climate change.  Malloch-Brown calls us to embrace more powerful international institutions and the values needed to underpin a truly globalist agenda — the rule of law, human rights, and opportunity for all.       
* Children without a State: A Global Human Rights Challenge.  Edited by Jacqueline Bhabha (Lecturer, Harvard Law School and JFK School of Government).  Foreword by Mary Robinson.  Cambridge: MIT Press, March 2011, 408p, $32.  Children are particularly at risk from statelessness: 36% of all births worldwide are not registered, leaving >48 million children under the age of five with no legal identity and no formal claim on any state.  Millions of other children are born stateless or become undocumented as a result of migration.  The human rights repercussions range from dramatic abuses (detention and deportation) to social marginalization (lack of access to education and health care).  Chapters focus on Palestinian children in Israel, undocumented young people in the US, unaccompanied child migrants in Spain, Roma children in Italy, irregular internal child migrants in China, and children in mixed legal/illegal families in the US. 
* The World Ahead (Special Issue).  Foreign Affairs, Nov-Dec 2010, 204p.   “Today, unlike 20 years ago, there is widespread recognition of a long list of simmering conflicts, unsettling trends, and mounting global problems.”  The 14 essays include such topics as the future of American power by Joseph Nye, Hillary Clinton on civilian power, the consequences of US fiscal irresponsibility (federal debt could reach 90% of GDP in 10 years), the need to redefine “security” for an economic-centered world, the difficulty of integrating rising powers (Brazil, China, India), low fertility and population aging worldwide, the rise of religion around the world, the need for a globalized clean energy revolution, the questionable security benefits of America’s worldwide system of >1,000 military bases and stations, the return of Asia to the world stage, impacts of the infotech revolution, and avoiding famine in Africa.    (WORLD FUTURES)
* Globalization: The Greatest Hits.  A Global Studies Reader.  Edited by Manfred B. Steger (Prof of Global Studies, Melbourne Inst of Tech; Fellow, Globalization Research Center, U of Hawaii).  Boulder CO: Paradigm Publishers, June 2010, 320p, $24.95pb.  Global studies emerged in the 1980s; Steger selects and edits 20 of the most influential pieces on globalization out of a vast repertoire of writing, and explains their interdependence.  Chapters cover globalization of markets (Theodore Levitt), global cultural economy (Arjun Appadurai), globalization of modernity (Anthony Giddens), the global city model (Saskia Sassen), globalization as an ascendant paradigm (James Mittelman), the promise of global institutions (Joseph Stieglitz), five meanings of global civil society (Mary Kaldor), the new terrorists (Olivier Roy), American power after 9/11 (Manfred B. Steger), the world as a polder (Jared Diamond), emergence of world social forums (William McNeill), etc.                                                 (WORLD FUTURES)
*The Atlas of Human Rights: Mapping Violations of Freedom around the GlobeAndrew Fagan (deputy director, Human Rights Centre, U of Essex).  Berkeley CA: University of California Press, Aug 2010/128p/$21.95pb (copublished with Myriad Editions Ltd).  In the post 9/11 world, governments are using the threat of terrorism to justify tightening national security and restricting basic human rights. Addresses the implications of this trend, and judicial violations or legal restrictions that permit state-sponsored torture, indefinite detention, capital punishment, and police brutality. Charts both the progress and the limitation of free expression and media censorship, and details the geographic status of sexual freedom, racism, religious freedom, rights of the disabled, women’s rights, sex slavery, and rights of the child.                                                    (HUMAN RIGHTS ATLAS * ATLAS OF HUMAN RIGHTS)
* Creating a New Civilization through Social Entrepreneurship.  Edited by Patrick U. Petit (representative to the United Nations, Goi Peace Foundation, Tokyo and Munich).   Foreword by Muhammad Yunus (founder, Grameen Bank, Bangladesh).  Piscataway NY: Transaction Publishers, Oct 2010/223p/$29.95pb.  While businesses and consumers fail to trigger an economic revival, due to the uncertain environment, social entrepreneurs can restore a sustainable planet and improve the lives of the poorest. Highlights the global movement of social entrepreneurship and features some of the leading organizations and individuals that have tackled major social problems and triggered systemic change throughout the world today.  [Also see Creating a World Without Poverty: Social Business and the Future of Capitalism by Muhammad Yunas (Public Affairs, Dec 2007/261p/$26).] 
* The Sacred Universe: Earth, Spirituality, and Religion in the Twenty-First Century. Thomas Berry (Greensboro NC). NY: Columbia UP, Sept 2009/176p/$22.95. A leading ecotheologian and Catholic priest calls for regenerative forms of religious experience, an inter-religious dialogue that can better confront 21C environmental problems, and a new story of the universe and emergence of the Earth within it. [ALSO SEE The Living Universe by Duane Elgin; Berrett-Koehler, May 2009.]
** 2010 World Population Data Sheet.  Carl Haub (PRB Demographer).  Washington: Population Reference Bureau, July 2010/one page/$4 (download free at  Not a book or a booklet, but a single 34x22” wall chart that is intelligently presented, authoritative, and low-cost.  Presents population, health, and environmental data and estimates for all regions and nations in 19 categories, notably population projections to 2025 and 2050.  World population, now at 6.89 billion as of mid-2010, is estimated to grow 17.6% to 8.12 billion in 2025, and 37.6% to 9.49 billion in 2050.  US population, at 310 million in 2010, is expected to grow to 351 million in 2025 (13.2%) and to 423 million in 2050 (36.5%).  (For further info, see GFB Book of the Month for August 2010.)  
** 2010 State of the Future.  Jerome C. Glenn (Director, The Millennium Project), Theodore J. Gordon (Senior Fellow, MP), and Elizabeth Florescu (Director of Research, MP).  Washington: The Millennium Project, July 2010/88p (8x11”)/$49.95 (includes 7,000p CD).  (   The 14th annual edition continues to provide a context for global thinking and improved understanding of global issues and strategies, assisted by 35 project Nodes in various countries.  The mainstay of the report is concise two-page descriptions of 15 Global Challenges: sustainable development/climate change, clean water, population, democracy, long-term perspectives, ICT convergence, ethical market economies, infectious diseases, decision-making capacity, security challenges, status of women, organized crime, energy, accelerating sci/tech, and ethics in global decisions.  Also includes special studies on the State of the Future Index, building collective intelligence systems, emerging environmental security issues, Latin America 2030, and a survey on futures research and gaps around the world (completed by 32 Nodes).  The SOTF report is the best introduction and overview—by far—to a broad range of major global issues and long-term remedies.  (For further info, see long review as GFB Book of the Month for Sept 2010.) 
** Patterns of Potential Human Progress.  Vol 1: Reducing Global Poverty.  Barry B. Hughes (Prof of International Studies and director, Pardee Center for International Futures, U of Denver) and five others.   Boulder CO: Paradigm Publishers, Aug 2009/352p/$39.95pb (free pdf at   The first in a new series inspired by the UN Human Development Reports and Millennium Development Goals, using the large-scale International Futures program developed by Hughes over three decades.  Explores a multi-issue database and a wide range of scenarios, looking 50 years into the future.  Chapters discuss the character and extent of poverty, the need for a long horizon, measures of poverty, poverty reduction strategies, framing uncertainty with proximate drivers (population, economic growth, distribution), levers to change the future of poverty (fertility, human and social capital, governance, infrastructure, natural capital, knowledge), international drivers (trade and FDI, worker remittances, foreign aid), the multiple faces of poverty and its future (in Africa, Asia, the Americas, and Europe), conflict and poverty, and corruption and poverty.  Concludes that the horizon of global goal setting should be at least to 2030, and 2050 seems reasonable.  The difficulty of rapid progress should be explicitly acknowledged, and global goals should not pretend to be appropriate for all regions and nations.  Finally, the global development community needs integrated reviews of progress toward goals, with analysis of potential for future progress.  
*The Earth Charter: A Framework for Global Governance.  Edited by Ron Engel and Klaus Bosselmann.  Amsterdam: Kit Publishers (dist by Stylus), Sept 2010/200p/$39.95.  Analyzes The Earth Charter—the leading ethical framework for global governance— from a legal and ethical point of view. Discusses challenges surrounding current international law and governance: state sovereignty, global governance, sustainable development, and the precautionary principle. 
** Hyperconflict: Globalization and InsecurityJames H. Mittelman (University Prof of Intl Affairs, American U).  Palo Alto CA: Stanford U Press, Jan 2010, 288p, $24.95pb.  Author of Whither Globalization? (Routledge, 2005) and The Globalization Syndrome (Princeton, 2001) views hyperconflict as a consequence of globalization.  Intense interaction of the systemic drivers of global security and insecurity heightens insecurity at a world level.  The emergent condition of hyperconflict results in reorganized political violence (as states are unable to monopolize legitimate violence), a growing climate of fear, and increasing world instability (fueled by technology and economic integration).  Concludes with scenarios for future world order, offered as an early warning to prevent the gathering storm of hyperconflict and to identify opportunities for establishing enduring peace.
* Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity.  James Hansen (director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies;  NY: Bloomsbury, Dec 2009/320p/$25.  A leading American climate scientist who first warned of global warming in 1982 warns that “the timetable is shorter than we thought…(due to) the nearness of climate tipping points, beyond which climate dynamics can cause rapid changes out of humanity’s control.”  The biggest obstacle to addressing global warming is the undue sway of special interests, and “government greenwash” (the vast disparity between words and reality) contributes to the crisis.  “In 2001, I was more sanguine about the climate situation,” thinking that CO2 at 450ppm was tolerable.  It is now at 387ppm in 2009, “already in the dangerous range” and we must reduce it to 350ppm at most.                                (WORLD FUTURES * CLIMATE CHANGE)
**Requiem for a Species: Why We Resist the Truth about Climate Change. Clive Hamilton (Prof of Public Ethics, Australian National U). London & Sterling, VA: Earthscan (dist. by Stylus), May 2010, 286p, $24.95. Greenhouse gas emissions are now exceeding the worst-case scenarios of a few years ago, and, after a decade of little real action, “catastrophic climate change is now virtually certain.” Even if we act promptly and resolutely, “the world is on a path to reach 650ppm” of CO2, well above the “safe” level of 450ppm. Chapters discuss growth fetishism, wasteful consumption, the many forms of denial, disconnection from nature, climate engineering, and life in “the four-degree world” expected by leading climate scientists, well beyond the two degree rise previously expected.
                   (CLIMATE CHANGE * WORLD FUTURES)
** The Beijing Consensus: How the New Chinese Illiberal Order Is Outpacing the West.  Stefan Halper (Senior Fellow in Int’l Relations, U of Cambridge; Distinguished Fellow, Nixon Center, Washington).  NY: Basic Books, April 2010/312p/$28.95.   China’s vision is rapidly replacing the so-called Washington Consensus: instead of promoting democracy through economic aid, China offers no-strings-attached gifts and loans.  The autonomy China offers, along with the appeal of its illiberal capitalism, have become the dual engines for the diffusion of power away from the West.
**The Flooded Earth: Our Future in a World without Ice Caps.  Peter D. Ward (Prof of Geological Sciences, U of Washington).  NY: Basic Books, July 2010/272p/$25.95.  Sea-level rise will happen no matter what we do.  Even if we stopped all CO2 emissions today, the seas would rise one meter by 2050 and three meters by 2100.  This will be the most catastrophic effect of global warming.  Details what our world will look like in 2050, 2100, and 2300.  Also, as icebound regions melt, new sources of oil, gas, minerals, and arable land will be revealed, leading to fierce geopolitical battles.
* Power and Responsibility: Building International Order in an Era of Transnational Threats. Bruce Jones (Center for International Cooperation, NYU), Carlos Pascual (VP, Brookings) and Stephen John Stedman (Center for International Security, Stanford U). Washington: Brookings Institution Press, Mar-09/360p/$32.95. The post-WWII fabric of global security does not meet the needs of today’s global challenges. Proposes a new concept of “responsible sovereignty,” new commitments to rule-based international order, helping the UN return to peacekeeping, an Inter-Governmental Panel on Biological Security, a path down the road to zero nuclear weapons, a Centre of Excellence on Poverty Reduction, expanding the G8 to G16, a new climate change framework, global economic security, etc.
* Cosmopolitanism and the Geographies of Freedom. David Harvey (director, Center for Place, Culture, and Politics, CUNY Graduate Center). NY: Columbia UP, Jul-09/368p/ $27.50. Liberty and freedom are frequently invoked to justify political action, but in practice these idealist agendas often turn sour because they ignore the complexities of geography. Harvey charts a cosmopolitan order more appropriate for an emancipatory form of global governance, rooted in human experience rather than illusory ideals, yet bringing us closer to the liberation we seek.
* Freedom for Sale: The Death of Democracy and the Birth of a New World Order. John Kampfner (London UK, former editor of New Statesman). Basic Books, Jan-10/288p/$26.95. Former editor of New Statesman (2005-2008) argues that nations in the last 20 years such as Russia, China, Italy, and the United Arab Emirates have disproved the idea that capitalism and democracy are inextricably linked. This alarming trend to “authoritarian capitalism” as a potent rival to Western democracy has only been exacerbated by the global economic meltdown.
* Superpower Illusions: How Myths and False Ideologies Led America Astray—And How to Return to Reality. Jack F. Matlock Jr (Adjunct Prof of Int’l Rels, Columbia U). Yale U Press, Jan-10/320p/$30. Former US Ambassador to the Soviet Union (1987-1991) refutes the enduring idea that the US forced the collapse of the USSR, arguing that the end of the Cold War diminished US power because, with the removal of the Soviet threat, allies were less willing to accept American protection and leadership. During recent years, the belief that the US had defeated the Soviet Union led to a conviction that it did not need allies, diplomacy, or international organizations, resulting in America’s weakened ability to lead.                                              (WORLD POLITICS * U.S.: WORLD LEADERSHIP)
* The Future of Human Rights: U.S. Policy for a New Era. Edited by William F. Schulz (Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress). Philadelphia: U of Pennsylvania Press, Feb 2009/288p/$26.50pb. Former executive director of Amnesty International USA assembles 13 essays on the current state of global human rights programs, promoting democracy, women’s rights, refugee policy, religious freedom, labor standards, economic and social rights, and once again making the US a respected and forceful proponent of human rights.                                                   (WORLD FUTURES * HUMAN RIGHTS)
* Commonwealth. Michael Hardt (Prof of Literature and Italian, Duke U) and Antonio Negri. Cambridge: Harvard UP/Belknap Press, Oct 2009/330p/$35. Concludes a trilogy started with Empire and continued in Multitude, considers models of governance adequate to a global commonwealth, and proposes an ethics of freedom for living in our common world and a possible constitution for our common wealth; “common” should replace the opposition of private and public, and the politics predicated on that opposition.                                                                                                  (GOVERNANCE)
* The Empathic Civilization: The Race to Global Consciousness in a World of Crisis. Jeremy Rifkin (President, Foundation on Economic Trends, Washington). NY: Tarcher/Penguin, Dec 2009/688p/$27.95. “We are in a race to biosphere consciousness in a world facing the threat of extinction.” No matter how much we put our minds to the task of meeting the challenges of a rapidly globalizing world, the human race seems to continually come up short, unable to muster the collective mental resources. This disconnect between our vision for the world and our ability to realize it lies in the current state of human consciousness. The very way our brains are structured is not relevant to the new environments we have created. But we are on the cusp of refashioning consciousness so that human beings can mutually live and flourish in the new global space. “The undeniable dialectic of human history is the continuous feedback loop between expanding empathy and increasing entropy.”
* The Warcraft Civilization: Social Science in a Virtual World. William Sims Bainbridge (Director, Human-Centered Computing program, NSF). Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, March 2010/256p/$27.95. World of Warcraft is an immersive virtual world in which characters must cope in a dangerous environment, assume identities, struggle to communicate and understand, learn to use technology, and compete for dwindling resources. WoW, with >5,000 possible quests and hundreds of parallel realms, can be seen as an allegory of today and as a virtual prototype of tomorrow. Sociologist Bainbridge spent >2,300 hours in the Warcraft universe, deploying 22 characters of all ten races, all ten classes, and numerous professions.                (WORLD OF WARCRAFT AS PROTOTYPE OF FUTURE
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